• Marek Vavrovic

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Predictions.

Updated: Apr 16

"Contrary to the prevailing world concern, the COVID-19 epidemic is almost over in China."

Is COVID-19 almost over and you have to get ready for work? Let's find out when!



PAGE 1: Dashboard

On this page you can find a table with most recent data and the data from previous day. Next couple of charts are displaying the cumulative values followed by Date Over Date data analysis. If the spreading of the virus slows down or speeds up these charts reflect the changes.

The last chart on this page is providing a view on how successful the selected counties have been in terms of fighting the coronavirus. Chart is showing the data points after hitting the first 100th case.

PAGE 2: Historical data

Here I put a chart to tell you how many confirmed, active, fatal, and recovered cases the selected country has had since the first 100th confirmed case exceeded. You need to pick a country and choose the cases you want to see.

The following visual decomposes mortality by continents, regions, and individual countries.

PAGE 3: Predictions

On this page you will find the answer to what the next course of the spread of infection will look like. The forecast is made based on the average of the previous seven-days corona virus process and multiplied by a variable which I have called Quarantine Rate. The accuracy of the forecast is 85-95 percent. This measurement becomes less accurate when the selected country is at the top of its flattened curve because its values no longer rise exponentially. We can have a look on one example with Germany.

Prediction for Germany from 04/April/2020 until 11/April/2020 :

Death cases after 7 days on 11. April

Reported number: 2,705. Predicted number: 2,815. Accuracy: 96%

Confirmed cases after 7 days on 11. April

Reported number: 124,715. Predicted number: 129,097. Accuracy: 96%

Active cases may be more inaccurate because recovered cases are not reported properly.

Next visual divides mortality rate values into 5 groups. Based on the number of the confirmed cases and the mortality rate. If we have a look on the Blue Bubbles Cluster, we can clearly see that this cluster is grouping the countries with mortality rate between 11-18 percent and number of death cases 1-100. Red bubbles on the top of the Y-axis means there are too many confirmed cases and mortality rate is 2-15%.


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